Field notes · September 28, 2026
First snow is here, and El Niño is building:the 2026–27 ski-season outlook
Snow has arrived on the high peaks. We checked what fell this week and where NOAA sees the best chance of a wetter winter.
Snow reached the summit of Pikes Peak on September 23. By the next morning, KKTV reported four inches at 14,115 feet.1112 In Utah, the high Wasatch and Uintas turned white in places, while a camera at Red River Ski Area in New Mexico caught flakes after dark.3326 If you've been checking the mountain cams already, there's finally something to look at besides bare rock.
There's a bigger weather story behind the first snow, too. El Niño is strengthening in the Pacific, and NOAA puts the chance of a very strong event this fall and winter above 90%.1 That raises the odds of a wetter season in some parts of the country, though the outlook looks different depending on where you ride.2
Where snow showed up this week
On Pikes Peak, the summit cameras showed snow collecting around the visitor center and railway on September 23. KKTV's four-inch total came the following morning.1112 Reports and photos from September 22 also showed fresh snow high in Utah's Wasatch and Uinta ranges.33 Snowbasin shared images of wintry precipitation on the mountain, but the report couldn't distinguish snow from hail there, so we're leaving that sighting without a snow total.33
Red River Ski Area's webcam picked up flurries late on September 23. A National Weather Service forecaster reviewed the footage and confirmed the snow, though it had disappeared by morning.26 Nearby Taos Ski Valley and Angel Fire didn't report snow that night.26 Short-lived or not, that first glimpse of flakes at Red River is a welcome sight.
There had been snow before this week. A-Basin reported a little white above 12,500 feet on September 19.22 On September 13, Crystal Mountain in Washington had snow across its upper slopes; KREM reported the resort's six-inch figure. We couldn't confirm how long that cover lasted.2829 This week's sightings are newer, but Crystal's was the clearest ski-area accumulation we found.
Early snow doesn't have to last until opening day to be fun to see. Nor does a bare September tell you much about January: Mammoth Mountain recorded zero pre-October snow at Main Lodge in 2022–23, then finished with 715 inches.20 That's one season at one mountain, but it puts these first sightings in perspective.
About that “Super El Niño” talk
August's Niño-3.4 waters were warmer than average. This is an observed ocean reading.
NOAA's chance that the October–December RONI reaches +2.5°C or higher. A forecast, not a snow total.
Different measures, shown separately. Source: NOAA CPC September 10 diagnostic [1]; RONI method [23].
El Niño is already underway. NOAA measured the Niño-3.4 part of the Pacific at 1.8°C above average in August. Its September 21 update put the latest weekly reading at +2.1°C.132 The winds and rainfall over the tropical Pacific have shifted along with the warm water, so NOAA isn't just looking at one warm patch on a map.1
You may have seen the phrase "Super El Niño." NOAA's own highest category is very strong, and it says this event has a greater than 90% chance of reaching that category this fall and winter.13 There's a striking forecast behind the nickname: NOAA gives October–December a 75% chance of a three-month RONI at or above +2.5°C, which would top the index's El Niño record back to 1950.1 It hasn't happened yet. That 75% is about the Pacific, not the chance of record snow at a ski area.12
RONI compares that part of the Pacific with the wider tropics over three months.23 It helps NOAA judge how strong the event is. For us on the mountain, the next question is where the storms travel and whether the snow line stays below the lifts we want to ride.2
Where the winter outlook leans
The places we're watching
Qualitative reading of NOAA CPC's September 17 three-month precipitation and temperature outlook [2]. These are regional tendencies, not resort-level snowfall predictions.
NOAA's September outlook favors wetter conditions across California, the Southwest and parts of the southern Rockies as winter develops. A wetter signal also reaches up the Atlantic coast toward New England.2 The interior Northwest and Great Lakes lean modestly drier.2 Those are seasonal precipitation odds. For a day on the mountain, we still need the storms to arrive cold enough to snow.2
There's a temperature wrinkle: NOAA also favors a warmer-than-usual season across much of the West and northern tier.2 Anyone who's watched rain fall at the parking lot while snow collects up top knows the drill. A wet Sierra storm could be terrific at higher elevations and much less helpful near the base. We'll only know where that rain-snow line sits when a storm gets close.2
Here's what that means for the places we ride:
For the Sierra, the wet outlook is encouraging. NOAA puts the odds of above-normal precipitation near parts of the California coast at roughly 50–60% during several winter periods.2 That's for precipitation across a broad region, rather than snow at Tahoe or Mammoth. How low the snow level drops will matter on every storm.2
Southern Colorado and New Mexico are closer to the favored wet corridor.2 That's a good reason to keep those mountains on the list. Central Colorado, Utah and Wyoming are less clear-cut: one storm track can work beautifully for one range and miss another. In those places, we'd watch the local forecast rather than making a call for the whole state.2
The interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies have a modest drier tilt, with warmer odds in parts of the northern tier.2 Crystal Mountain still picked up a reported six inches high on the mountain in September.2829 A three-month lean won't prevent a good storm, so we wouldn't write off Idaho, Montana or northern Wyoming. We'd just wait to see which systems actually reach them.2
The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic are closer to the Atlantic-coast wet signal later in the season.2 At lower-elevation hills, we'll be watching the temperature alongside the storm track. Around the Great Lakes, the modest drier lean says less about a particular weekend than it does about the season as a whole.2
The strong El Niño winters of 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16 are tempting comparisons. NOAA points out one reason to be careful with them: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was negative this August, but positive in those earlier winters. That difference could soften some of the usual El Niño effects in certain areas.2
At Mammoth, those winters didn't look much alike. Main Lodge recorded 546.3 inches in 1982–83, 451.4 in 1997–98, and 362.2 in 2015–16.20 That's quite a range at one mountain, even among the strong El Niño years NOAA considers useful comparisons.220
Mammoth's past winters
Mammoth Main Lodge totals during three historic strong El Niño winters. Scale: 0 to 750 inches.
Exact Main Lodge figures: Mammoth Mountain historical snowfall [20]. Years selected for comparison with NOAA's discussion [2]; not a statistical sample or forecast for 2026–27.
What we'd check next
NOAA's next El Niño update is due October 8. Another seasonal outlook follows in mid-to-late October.12 We'll check whether the strength forecast holds and whether the regional outlooks move. After that, we'd rather see a run of cold storms, rising snow-water readings high on the mountain, and new snow that sticks around between systems.12
When you're picking a trip week, switch from the seasonal map to resort reports and the National Weather Service's shorter-range forecast. That's when you can see where a storm is headed and what elevation it might snow down to.213
For now, Pikes Peak has fresh snow, Utah's highest ridges have turned white, and Red River has seen its first flakes.123326 NOAA's El Niño forecast gives us plenty to follow, particularly in California and the southern Rockies.12 We'll keep checking the mountain reports as storms come through. A cold one that leaves snow at resort elevations will tell us a lot more.
A few good questions
Does this week's snow tell us how winter will go? Not yet. Pikes Peak got a reported four inches at the summit, Utah's peaks turned white, and Red River saw flurries.123326 It's a fun start, but Mammoth's 2022–23 season shows how little September can tell us: zero pre-October snow at Main Lodge, then 715 inches by season's end.20
Is "Super El Niño" official? NOAA uses very strong for its highest category and puts this event's chances of reaching it above 90%.13 A record three-month reading is possible, but it hasn't been measured yet.1
Which mountains are worth watching? California and parts of the southern storm corridor have a favorable wet tilt in NOAA's outlook.2 Once a storm appears in the shorter-range forecast, check where its snow line will sit before making plans for a particular mountain.2
Sources & reading notes
The weather details are reported or forecast, with links below. Ridge and the mountain scenery are illustrations, not photos of these events.
- [1] NOAA CPC · ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, September 10, 2026
- [2] NOAA CPC · Seasonal Outlook Discussion, September 17, 2026
- [3] NOAA CPC · ENSO strength probabilities
- [11] KRDO · Pikes Peak summit cameras, September 23
- [12] KKTV · Pikes Peak snowfall report, September 23–24
- [13] OpenSnow · High-peak outlook, September 23
- [20] Mammoth Mountain · Historical snowfall at Main Lodge
- [22] Arapahoe Basin · A Touch of White, September 19
- [23] NOAA CPC · Relative Oceanic Niño Index explainer
- [26] Albuquerque Journal · Red River webcam and NWS verification
- [28] Crystal Mountain · Mountain report
- [29] KREM · Crystal Mountain snow report
- [32] NOAA CPC · ENSO status, September 21
- [33] SnowBrains · Utah snow roundup, September 23